Belarus economy development projections based on $50 per barrel of oil

The government suggests using the Belarusian economy development scenario that envisages the annual price for oil at $50 per barrel, with the Russian ruble exchange rate at RUB62 per $1, as the basic scenario for 2015. The statement was made by Prime Minister of Belarus Andrei Kobyakov during the sixth session of the fifth convocation House of Representatives of the National Assembly of Belarus on 25 February as he presented the government’s action program for 2015, BelTA has learned.

Two components — the oil price and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble — were taken into consideration as the main factors for the sake of putting together the scenarios. These factors influence the profitability of the state budget, the performance of the Belarusian petrochemical industry, and the demand for Belarusian products on the Russian market.

Planned revenues of the state budget of Belarus are falling due to falling oil prices on the global market. The Russian economy is also slowing down and importing less, including Belarusian products. On the whole, Russian experts expect Russia to reduce import by roughly 30%. This is why the government has decided to rely on the scenario that expects the annual price for oil on the global market at $50 per barrel and the exchange rate of the Russian ruble at RUB62 per $1 as the basic scenario for implementing the economic policy, said the Prime Minister of Belarus.

“We got in touch with Russian colleagues in order to synchronize calculations, optimize the industrial policy and export,” Andrei Kobyakov went on saying. “Kazakhstan has adopted similar oil price projections. Thus, we speak the same language in the Eurasian Economic Union as far as the projections are concerned”.

BelTA reported earlier that this year’s government action program envisages three scenarios for the development of the Belarusian economy. The first scenario expects the annual average price for oil to be $60 per barrel in 2015, with the exchange rate of the Russian ruble at RUB60 per $1. The second scenario relies on calculations of the Russian Federation’s basic scenario and expects the annual average price for oil at $50 per barrel, with the exchange rate of the Russian ruble at RUB61.5 per $1. The third scenario expects oil to cost $40 per barrel, with the annual average exchange rate of the Russian ruble at RUB80 per $1.

Responses and economy balancing measures have been worked out for each scenario.